Que peut-il se passer dans 5, 10, 15, 20 ou 50 ans ? Est-ce possible de le savoir ? Oui et non !
– Non, il n’est pas possible de savoir avec exactitude ce qui va se passer dans l’avenir tant le monde est incertain aujourd’hui. La prospective n’est pas un art divinatoire.
– Oui, il est possible de mener une réflexion rigoureuse pour se projeter dans le futur et identifier différentes hypothèses plausibles d’évolution. On parle de futurs possibles.

03:52
Antony, together with his colleagues from NEOMA, presents research conducted with the University of Bristol on how international companies choose countries for sourcing. The concept of "country risk," once focused on economic conditions and political stability, now includes three major sociopolitical factors: populism, which creates regulatory uncertainty; state fragility, which affects suppliers’ ability to deliver; and checks and balances, which can limit but not always prevent political drift.
The study, covering 1,300 U.S. companies and their suppliers in 90 countries, shows that these factors directly influence sourcing decisions. Examples like Samsung and H&M illustrate this shift toward countries perceived as more stable. In conclusion, companies must strengthen their geopolitical monitoring to anticipate risks and secure their supply chains.
PAULRAJ Antony - NEOMA Business School |
- Recherche
- Logistique et Supply Chain